IMS revisits ADT/Broadview market share estimates

Yesterday, IMS came out with a report saying that the combination of ADT and Broadview Security would give ADT more than 50 percent of market share. They've changed their tune today. It seems that IMS was only measure companies that do their own monitoring...and you and I know that there are a lot of alarm companies out there who don't do their own monitoring. In response to comment in yesterday's blog, I noted that Tyco (ADT's parent company) CEO Ed Breen, in an investor call yesterday, estimated ADT's market share at 20-22 and Broadview's at "about one-fifth of ours." Backing up Breen's numbers, are estimates I have from the Barnes Buchanan conference for the past few years. Mike Barnes, in Feb. 2009, estimated ADT's market share at 23.7 percent and Broadview at 4.4 percent. Yesterday I asked IMS how they came up with their numbers, and today, I got this response in an email from Alastair Hayfield
The quoted percentage figure comes from our 2008 North American Remote Monitoring Service report and some new information based on interviews for the 2010 update. The 2008 report included revenues from alarm companies who monitor their own accounts such as ADT and Broadview. The 2008 report defined and measured the remote monitoring services market for all companies owning and operating a central monitoring station....We have updated the market definition for the 2010 edition of this report to capture the revenues generated by independent alarm installation companies who do not own their own central stations. Using this new definition, the combined market share of ADT/Broadview is in the range 30-35% - this agrees with the statements made by ADT's senior execs.